Domestic oil prices will be raised for the first time in 2024

On January 3, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that according to the recent changes in oil prices in the international market and in accordance with the current refined oil price formation mechanism, from 24 o'clock on January 3, 2024, domestic gasoline and diesel prices (standard products, the same below) will be increased by 200 yuan and 190 yuan per ton respectively. So far, the domestic retail price of refined oil has ushered in the first increase after the "six consecutive declines", which is also the first increase in 2024.

According to the forecast of Zhuochuang Information, after the adjustment, the discount price of No. 92 gasoline, No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel will be increased by 0.16 yuan, 0.17 yuan and 0.16 yuan respectively. After the retail price increase of refined oil is implemented, the cost of consumer travel will further rise. For example, a family car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L will cost an extra 8 yuan to fill up a tank of 92 gasoline. Taking a heavy truck with a monthly run of 10,000 kilometers and a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 kilometers as an example, before the next price adjustment window opens, the fuel cost of a single vehicle will cost about 284 yuan more.

Judging from the current round of pricing cycle, although international oil prices as a whole showed a trend of rising first and then declining, the oil prices of Brent in London and WTI in New York have risen significantly compared with the previous round of price adjustment cycle. According to the monitoring of the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, during the current round of refined oil price adjustment cycle (December 19, 2023 to January 2, 2024), London Brent and New York WTI oil prices increased by 4.26% and 3.48% respectively compared with the previous price adjustment cycle.

Talking about the reasons for the rise in international oil prices, the relevant person in charge of the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the decline in US crude oil and gasoline inventories and the weakening of the US dollar index have played a supporting role in international oil prices.

However, at the same time, Angola's decision to withdraw from OPEC has raised doubts about the effectiveness of OPEC's production cuts, coupled with record US crude oil production, which has weakened OPEC's dominance in the global crude oil market, and investors' increased concerns about the outlook for energy demand have also weighed on international oil prices.

On the whole, the relevant person in charge of the price monitoring center of the National Development and Reform Commission expects that international oil prices may maintain a volatile trend in the short term.

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